Irvine Housing Blog

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Uncovering the History of the Secret Garden Posted: 21 May 2012 05:00 AM PDT A million dollar dream of 2005 turned into a trap for many buyers in 2009 with the properties in that area selling for a discount of around $200,000. With the chatter of the possible bottom in the ‘Summer of 2012’, the Camelia tract of Northwood II saw a lot of activity despite of good location, and excellent schools. Now that ‘Summer of 2012’ is almost here, I wanted to go back in history and see if those that bought in the frenzy of 2009 made a good decision. So, instead of comparing two identical properties for sale in the same village, I will compare a property on the market now with a property that sold in 2009. The property I have picked is 52 Secret Garden in Northwood. Karen covered the open house in her blog post last week. Also, a discussion on Talk Irvine validates interest in the property. Here is the sales history of six years for identical properties in the same tract. The selling price seems to be stable around $300/SF. The peak was in 2006, at $381/SF. The bottom so far was at $275 in 2009. Year Sold Address Sale Price Price/ SF 2006 25 Grape Arbor $1,180,000 $381 – Highest 2008 26 Teak Bridge 26 Grape Arbor 42 Secret Garden 61 Secret Garden $1,075,000 $939,000 $942,000 $950,000 $350 $306 $301 $301 2009 59 Fire Thorn 71 Secret Garden 25 Grape Arbor 62 East Bamboo 64 Secret Garden 27 Secret Garden $940,000 $843,000 $855,000 $915,000 $865,000 $949,000 $306 $275 $276 - Lowest $291 $279 $309 2010 27 Torrey Pine 60 Corn Flower $900,000 $939,000 $290 $300 2011 56 Fire Thorn 61 Crab Apple $921,500 $905,000 $297 $292 2012 32 Torrey Pine 30 Secret Garden 61 Secret Garden $957,000 $965,000 $979,000 $309 $301 $306 For comparison I chose 71 Secret Garden sold in 2009. It defines the bottom for the Camelia tract so far at $275/SF. Address 52 Secret Garden 71 Secret Garden Listing Price $969,000 $843,000 (Sold) Original purchase price $1,008,000 Sept, 2005 $1,018,000 Nov, 2008 $1,130,000 April, 2005   Price/ SF $313 $275 HOA Dues $142 $142 Monthly Mortgage $3649 (30 YR Fixed, 3.875%) $3724 (30 YR Fixed, 5.25%) Source: CNN money Down Payment $193,980 $168,600 Property Tax (1.0595%) $10266 $8674 Mello Roos $3336 $3336 Annual Tax + Mello Roos $13602 $12011 Monthly expenses $4924 $4866 52 Secret Garden   71 Secret Garden Similar homes in the area have rented for $4200-$4300. In my opinion, it hasn’t made much difference considering the plunge in mortgage rates.What do you think? Was the worst over in 2009, or is it yet to come? Will the Camelia tract go below $290/SF again?

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