Irvine Housing Blog | |
| Low Interest Rates Will Not Create Demand Posted: 09 Nov 2010 02:30 AM PST Low interest rates are not created the demand for housing that low prices does. Irvine Home Address ... 19 GEORGETOWN 25 Irvine, CA 92612
Not long ago I noted, Low Interest Rates Are Not Clearing the Market Inventory. Well, I am not the only one who has noticed. Richard Fisher, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, has also noted that low interest rates will not fix the ailing economy, but super low rates will have many deleterious effects not anticipated by others at the Fed. Dallas Fed president: Low interest rates won't spark demandby JACOB GAFFNEY -- Monday, November 8th, 2010, 3:28 pm
Home loan demand is well off historic highs as Existing-Home Sales Sink to Lowest Level Ever Recorded and refinance demand has dropped because everyone either already has refinanced or they are unable to because they are under water on their mortgage. Plus, who is anxious to use low interest rates to buy assets at inflated prices? There is only one sure-fire way to stimulate demand: lower the price. Fix the Housing Market: Let Home Prices Fall. On the weekend open thread, the clearest example of lower prices stimulating demand can be readily seen in Las Vegas: Notice the crash in prices has resulted in a large boost in sales. Buyers in Las Vegas are currently more active than they were at the peak of the bubble. So how is Southern California doing? While home prices have bounced off the false bottom, the rate of sales has declined significantly from the peak and remains at very low levels? Why is that? Why are sales rates higher in Las Vegas than in Southern California relative to the peak? It's the price. Every once in a while I see threads in the comments where the sales strength of the market is touted. Look carefully at the charts above: sales rates are down in Southern California -- way down. Anything else is spin. Yes, people are buying homes, but they are buying far fewer of them because the prices are too high. In Las Vegas more people are buying homes because the prices are lower. In fact, they are so much lower that outside people like me are buying homes because the prices are so low. Lower prices stimulate demand, not lower interest rates. Back to the article....
Who are the banks going to loan that money to? The over-indebted American consumer? Few creditworthy borrowers exist in the current economic environment. Too much bank money is tied up in non-productive loans, non-productive assets, and low yield government treasuries.
Wow! A guy at the Fed who really gets it. Bernanke has openly stated he wants a weaker dollar too help stimulate inflation. The excess liquidity is bound to find its way into momentum plays as money chases the few asset classes with any real prospects and other money follows. This speculation leads to mis-allocations of resources and continued economic weakness. The theft from savers is obvious. Have you seen the interest rate on your savings account lately? This activity should put the stature and independence of the Fed at risk. It is clear the Fed exists to promote moral hazard and prevent the normal cleansing function of recessions from occurring. Despite the Feds best efforts, house prices in Las Vegas have crashed back to mid 90s levels, and because of it, the debt is being purged, citizens have affordable housing, sales rates are up, and the groundwork is being laid for a healthy recovery. Because of the Feds best efforts, house prices in Orange County remain elevated at 2003-2005 prices, and because of it debt is being preserved, citizens have expensive housing, sales rates are down, and a sustained economic recovery is being delayed and weakened. Las Vegas will prosper because once the crash has erased the excess debt, home owners will have more spending money as a percentage of their income than Orange County residents will have. This extra spending money will make its way to auto dealerships, local restaurants, and other businesses. Borrowers in Orange County will be spending a much higher percentage of their incomes on interest and debt service, and only the hope of future mortgage equity withdrawal based on herd-induced appreciation keeps the whole system together. The local economy will suffer as local incomes are diverted to far-away interest recipients who are not stimulating the California economy. We can have high house prices or a vibrant economy, but we can't have both without Ponzi borrowing.
Whenever I read one of Bernanke's statements, I assume he says stupid things like that because he has to. It frightens me that he might actually believe it. I think Greenspan believed his own bullshit. First, easier financial conditions -- whatever that means -- will not necessarily promote economic growth. Bernanke's zero interest rate policy hasn't fixed things so far. It has prevented asset prices from crashing to market-clearing levels, but I consider that a failure of policy; Benanke considers that a success. Second, lower mortgage interest rates will not allow underwater loan owners to refinance, and even if they did, they still have too much debt relative to their incomes. Financing enormous sums at 4% isn't doing borrowers any favors as long as they have too much debt. Third, lower bond rates may not encourage businesses to invest. What will they invest in? What is there a demand for that is not already over-supplied? Real estate? LOL! Forth, higher stock prices -- when inflated by air from the Federal Reserve -- are Ponzi profits likely to evaporate once the Fed stops its inflationary policies. Is this a sustained element of demand upon which we should build our economy?
The sad part of our policy is that we will export the inflation we tried to create at home. Japan's decades-long low interest rate policy helped inject excess liquidity into other Asian economies over the last 20 years, yet inflation in Japan remains elusive. It's hard to say where our excess liquidity will end up. China perhaps? Like water seeking its natural level, the liquidity will flow somewhere, and that isn't likely to be into the inflated real estate values in Southern California. With such low cap rates and only the prospect of Ponzi profits, why would rational money flow there? To pick up "investments" like today's featured property? Orange County's version of a cashflow property | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| A Plan to Transfer Losses on Jumbo Toxic Mortgages to Taxpayers (repost) Posted: 08 Nov 2010 10:34 AM PST Due technical difficulties with our threaded comments, we closed the comments on the original post. The entire post is now here, and comments are open. Do you want to pay the losses from jumbo loans -- big loans to rich people -- with your taxes? Irvine Home Address ... 7 PEPPERCORN Irvine, CA 92603
In our modern mortgage era, nearly all loans are backed by the US government. At one time we had something resembling a free market, but the quasi-governmental entities Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae crowded out much of the mortgage market, and when they were taken over by the Treasury department, they basically took over the mortgage market together with the FHA. The GSEs and the FHA were originally intended to provide mortgages to lower and middle income Americans who where not being served by the free market. Rich people can get loans because they have assets and often high incomes. There hasn't been much need to subsidize rich people, and there isn't much support among the electorate for such subsidies. That is why we have a conforming limit to GSE and FHA loans. Raising this conforming limit would offer a government subsidy to wealthy or high-income borrowers. It would also give opportunity for lenders to refinance many of their toxic jumbo loans into government-backed toxic loans and shift losses to the US taxpayer. Total Mortgage founder: Increase jumbo loan limit nationwide to spur the market | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Date | Event | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 04, 2010 | Price Changed | $767,000 | ||
| Oct 23, 2010 | Price Changed | $772,000 | ||
| Oct 15, 2010 | Price Changed | $775,000 | ||
| Oct 01, 2010 | Price Changed | $779,000 | ||
| Sep 23, 2010 | Price Changed | $785,000 | ||
| Sep 17, 2010 | Price Changed | $789,000 | ||
| Sep 01, 2010 | Listed | $795,000 | ||

Irvine Home Address ... 7 PEPPERCORN Irvine, CA 92603 ![]()
Resale Home Price ... $767,000
Home Purchase Price … $661,500
Home Purchase Date .... 8/23/2010
Net Gain (Loss) .......... $59,480
Percent Change .......... 9.0%
Annual Appreciation … 60.7%
Cost of Ownership
-------------------------------------------------
$767,000 .......... Asking Price
$153,400 .......... 20% Down Conventional
4.21% ............... Mortgage Interest Rate
$613,600 .......... 30-Year Mortgage
$144,845 .......... Income Requirement
$3,004 .......... Monthly Mortgage Payment
$665 .......... Property Tax
$225 .......... Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)
$128 .......... Homeowners Insurance
$222 .......... Homeowners Association Fees
============================================
$4,244 .......... Monthly Cash Outlays
-$704 .......... Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)
-$851 .......... Equity Hidden in Payment
$231 .......... Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)
$96 .......... Maintenance and Replacement Reserves
============================================
$3,015 .......... Monthly Cost of Ownership
Cash Acquisition Demands
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
$7,670 .......... Furnishing and Move In @1%
$7,670 .......... Closing Costs @1%
$6,136 ............ Interest Points @1% of Loan
$153,400 .......... Down Payment
============================================
$174,876 .......... Total Cash Costs
$46,200 ............ Emergency Cash Reserves
============================================
$221,076 .......... Total Savings Needed
Property Details for 7 PEPPERCORN Irvine, CA 92603
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Beds: 3
Baths: 2 full 1 part baths
Home size: 2,046 sq ft
($375 / sq ft)
Lot Size: n/a
Year Built: 2004
Days on Market: 66
Listing Updated: 40486
MLS Number: P750630
Property Type: Condominium, Residential
Community: Quail Hill
Tract: Laur
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A True Turnkey Property with An Incredibly Open And Spacious Floor Plan Boasting High Ceilings, Plantation Shutters, Hardwood Flooring, New Paint, and Stainless Steel Appliances!!! Along with the Bedrooms there is any Extra DEN downstairs & LIVING AREA upstairs!!! Customized Tiles and Kitchen with Granite Countertops and Stainless Steel Appliances with a Brand New Wine Cooler! Boasts a TRUE Master Bedroom Features Walk-In Closet, Private Balcony, Dual Sinks, Roman Tub & Separate Shower. Inside Separate Laundry Rooom And Plenty Of Storage. This Fantastic End Unit Share Only 1 Wall. Situated In A Quiet Location Of A Very Desireable Complex Located In The Heart Of Irvine. Close to Restaurants, Theater And Shopping. Close To The Toll Road And It Is One Of Irvine's Newest complexes.
Why is this in Title Case?
Do you feel the excitement with the exclamation points!!!
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