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Irvine Housing Blog

Irvine Housing Blog

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Prime Loan Delinquencies Increase for 37th Straight Month

Posted: 20 Jul 2010 03:30 AM PDT

Prime mortgages are defaulting at ever-increasing rates. The problem with mortage delinquency is not improving. 


Irvine Home Address ... 14902 ELM Ave Irvine, CA 92606
Resale Home Price ...... $769,000

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It is rare to find a great deal of consistency in financial data. There are always statistical blips where some indicator moves against the prevailing trend, and reporters are keen to report on any insignificant change as if it is a new trend. For the last 3 years, the news on mortgage delinquencies has been very consistent -- consistently bad. This is one indicator that hasn't yet provided the slightest glimmer of hope to those waiting for the housing rebound.

Seriously Delinquent Prime RMBS Rise for 37th Straight Month: Fitch Ratings

Diana Golobay -- Tuesday, July 13th, 2010, 11:22 am

The 60-plus-day delinquency rate for US prime residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) rose in the 37th consecutive month in June, according to Fitch Ratings.

The credit-rating agency noted the "seriously" delinquent rate — of 60 days or more — within prime jumbo RMBS rose to 10.4% in June, up from 10.3% in May and 6.4% at the same time last year.

What is even worse is that once borrowers go "seriously" delinquent, the cure rate has been getting steadily worse.

Think about what we have going on. We have a very large number of borrowers who purchased at the peak and can't afford the home with conventional financing even at very low interest rates. People simply can't pay off a loan that is six-times their yearly income no matter how favorable the interest rate. Add to all these peak buyers the HELOC abusers and other peak refinancers, and you have a recipe for enormous debt that will never get repaid. Once these struggling loan owners stop paying, they enter the abyss never to return. 

The five states with the highest volume of prime RMBS loans outstanding — California, New York, Florida, Virginia and New Jersey — represent a combined two-thirds of the estimated $354bn market, Fitch said. Prime jumbo RMBS delinquencies of 60 days or more rose in all but one of these top volume states:

The rate of loans rolling into later stages of delinquency within prime RMBS remained above 1% in June after a dip months earlier, but is still below the record high 1.4% recorded in March.

"The persistently high roll rates indicate that the delinquency declines are more a reflection of increased property liquidation and ongoing loan modification activity than of widespread improvement in mortgage payment performance," said Fitch managing director Vincent Barberio, in a statement, adding that "Prime RMBS has yet to show any signs of a favorable turnaround."

Almost nobody cures their debt by bringing payments current. This used to happen before the bubble, but with the huge debt loads, negative equity positions, and high unemployment, very few borrowers come up with the cash to cure their loans. The next best alternative is to get a loan modification and add the missed payments to the loan balance. Many in our government thought this solution might actually work. It won't because the debt load is far to large, and with negative equity, many borrowers don't see the point. This leaves liquidation through short sale or foreclosure as the ultimate solution. The loan is "cured" because it no longer exists.

Despite improvements in subprime and Alt-A RMBS delinquencies, roll rates remain elevated in those loan types, too.

Subprime RMBS delinquencies fell again in June to 43.7% from 44.8% in the previous month. The subprime RMBS roll rate fell slightly to 4.2% from 4.3% a month earlier.

Alt-A RMBS delinquencies slipped to 3.7% in June from 33.9% in May, marking the third monthly decline since April 2006. Roll rates rose to 3.4% in June from 3.1% in May.

Many of the loans in Irvine are packaged into prime residential mortgage-backed securities. We are not subprime dominated, so despite the high delinquency rates, lenders have not foreclosed on delinquent borrowers here. Orange County has high delinquency rates, and the steady increase in defaults on prime mortgages has not missed Irvine. Each day I profile a property that was likely a prime mortgage gone bad. With the sky-high prices we had here (and still have) the level of mortgage distress is high as well. Perhaps the lender's gambit of allowing borrowers to squat will succeed, and Irvine will not see further price declines. Anything is possible, but I rather doubt it. 

Late buyer still milked the equity cash cow

  • Today's featured property was originally purchased on 6/10/2005 for $749,000. The owner, a married woman buying as her sole and separate property, used a $495,000 first mortgage and a $254,000 down payment.
  • On 11/10/2005, she refinanced with a $499,000 first mortgage.
  • On 1/27/2006 she obtained a $190,000 HELOC.
  • On 3/28/2007 she refinanced with a $688,000 first mortgage and she got a $86,000 HELOC.
  • Total property debt is $774,000
  • Total mortgage equity withdrawal is $279,000 including her substantial down payment.
  • Total squatting time was at least 22 months.

Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 04/23/2009 
Document Type: Notice of Sale  

Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 10/23/2008 
Document Type: Notice of Default 

Palladio Properties LLC also purchased this place at auction. They have been very busy in the foreclosure auction market.

If you would like to learn how you can get involved with trustee sales, please contact me at  


Irvine Home Address ... 14902 ELM Ave Irvine, CA 92606

Resale Home Price ... $769,000

Home Purchase Price … $625,000
Home Purchase Date .... 5/4/2010

Net Gain (Loss) .......... $97,860
Percent Change .......... 15.7%
Annual Appreciation … 85.9%

Cost of Ownership
$769,000 .......... Asking Price
$153,800 .......... 20% Down Conventional
4.59% ............... Mortgage Interest Rate
$615,200 .......... 30-Year Mortgage
$151,880 .......... Income Requirement

$3,150 .......... Monthly Mortgage Payment

$666 .......... Property Tax
$0 .......... Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)
$64 .......... Homeowners Insurance
$43 .......... Homeowners Association Fees
$3,924 .......... Monthly Cash Outlays

-$755 .......... Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)
-$797 .......... Equity Hidden in Payment
$264 .......... Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)
$96 .......... Maintenance and Replacement Reserves
$2,732 .......... Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands
$7,690 .......... Furnishing and Move In @1%
$7,690 .......... Closing Costs @1%
$6,152 ............ Interest Points @1% of Loan
$153,800 .......... Down Payment
$175,332 .......... Total Cash Costs
$41,800 ............ Emergency Cash Reserves
$217,132 .......... Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 14902 ELM Ave Irvine, CA 92606
Beds: 3
Baths: 3 baths
Home size: 2,600 sq ft
($296 / sq ft)
Lot Size: 5,000 sq ft
Year Built: 1972
Days on Market: 28
Listing Updated: 40374
MLS Number: S621843
Property Type: Single Family, Residential
Community: Walnut
Tract: Cp

College Park Remodeled Home. Wood flooring, Crown Moldings & Recessed lighting throughout. Granite Countertop. 3 Bedrooms plus spacious bonus room. Mater bedroom with Deck. New Air-conditioner & New Stainless Steel Appliances installed. New interior paint. New light fixtures.Walking distance to school & Association Pool.


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