The annual celebration of Mid-Century Modern architecture and lifestyle returns in October. I was thrilled that ADAS took total control of planning and organizing the event. My role this year is merely to conduct the bus tour. Last year it was the first event to sell out.
ADAS (Architecture and Decorative Arts Society) celebrates all things mid-century modern with an extraordinary five day event. A pass for all five days is a very reasonable $100; $90 for ADAS members. Included is the kick off mixer, general admission to the Atomic Testing Museum, mid-century vendors; mid-century architectural seminar; mid-century dinner; fashion show; silent auction; three mid-century discussion panels; Morelli House reception; four-hour mid-century neighborhood bus tour. Visit ADAS website at www.adas-lv.com to purchase your tickets. Space is limited on most events.
Wednesday, October 19
ADAS kicks off the mid-modern experience by hosting a mixer at the Atomic Testing Museum, 5:30 – 7:30. Guests will have a lot to entertain themselves for the evening. A ticket for admission to the museum will be included in the price of the mixer. Guests can take the tour that evening, or can return at a later date. The Museum store will also be open for shopping. There will be food and wine in the main reception area, along with vendors previewing products that were popular in the 50s and 60s.
Event price: $30.00
Thursday, October 20
Again at the Atomic Testing Museum, ADAS is hosting a seminar
primarily for homeowners on the evolution and care of these historic buildings. Speakers with hands on experience in this genre of distinctive houses will share their knowledge. Food and wine will be provided. Vendors who specialize in mid-modern architecture will also be on hand.
Time: 6:00 – 8:00 pm.
Event Price: $30.00
Friday, October 21
A mid-century dinner will be held at Holsum Lofts, catered by Lola’s Restaurant. In addition to enjoying foods of the time period, diners will enjoy mid-century fashions in a multi-generational fashion show. There will also be a silent auction to tease the senses. Time: 6:00 – 9:00 pm
Event Price: $50.00
Saturday, October 22
The El Cortez Hotel will be the venue for this free event co-sponsored by the City of Las Vegas. There will be food and drink, followed by three expert panels. After the panel presentation there will be a reception at the Morelli House.
1:00 pm “Mid-Century Life Style Evolution” Local author and architect, Robert Fielden (Creating Place: Remaking America Green ) leads a discussion with author and architectural historian, Peter Moruzzi and others on the profound impact of midcentury design and architecture on American life in the middle of the 20th century.
2:00 pm “Family Feud: Havana vs. Las Vegas in the 1950s” Peter Moruzzi, presents an illustrated presentation from his book, Havana Before Castro-When Cuba Was a Tropical Playground. Before Castro’s revolution, Havana and Las Vegas were rivals for the title of the “Monte Carlo of the Americas.” Cuba’s exotic tropical setting, wild reputation, close proximity, and supportive government inspired the mob to
invest heavily in fabulous hotel-casinos such as the Capri, Riviera, and Nacional. Yet, many of these same investors were also among Vegas’ biggest boosters - Moe Dalitz, Sam Tucker, and front man Wilbur Clark. In 1958, the Nevada Gaming Control Board forced them to choose, Havana or Las Vegas, but not both.
3:00 pm “Dolls, Dons, and Dictators,” Architectural historian, Peter Moruzzi (Havana Before Castro – When Cuba Was a Tropical Playground); author Wendy Watson (Vegas Rag Doll); Myer Lansky II; and local author and historian Michael Green engage in a spirited and expanded discussion about the parallel worlds of Las Vegas and Cuba, drawing from their insights and some of their own personal real life experiences.
4:00 pm - 6 pm “Cha, Cha, Cha” Cuban inspired reception with music, drink and refreshment at the Morelli House, 861 E. Bridger.
Sunday, October 23
Hosted by well known realtor and mid-century modern real estate expert Jack LeVine, guests will take a four-hour tour on an open double-decker bus through iconic mid-century Las Vegas neighborhoods. In addition to touring neighborhoods, the bus will make several stops to peek inside select properties. Bus will depart and return to parking lot at Boulevard Mall. Time: 12 noon – 4 pm.
The Orange County resale home sales market enjoyed its seventh consecutive month of increasing affordability. The lack of a move-up market has depressed sales more than 25% below the long-term average.
Are you ready to crawl out? Are you ready to take my hand and see? Are you ready to crawl out? From within the slow bleed?
Thousand Foot Krutch -- Slow Bleed
The story of the housing market over the next few years will be a slow bleed. Prices won't likely crash hard as lenders have learned to control the price descent by slowly releasing product. They know if they release too fast, prices will crash, so they slowly bleed the market drop by drop. This slow bleed will go on until the inventory of distressed properties is cleared from the system. At current rates, that will take a very long time.
September 25th, 2011, 12:01 am -- posted by Jon Lansner
DataQuick’s first glance at September and Orange County homebuying trends shows pricing at a 7-month low — suggesting that a summertime price bump may have lost steam.
For the 22 business days ending Sept. 8 – the latest numbers — Orange County’s real estate market saw …
Median selling price for all residences of $417,500 – that is off 6.2% vs. a year ago. Last full month that was lower was February 2011 at $410,000.
Total Orange County sales of 2,683 residences closed in the latest period — that is up 6.8% vs. a year ago.
Note: 16 of 83 Orange County ZIPs had both rising sales and prices in the period. Is your ZIP one of those neighborhoods? To see, CLICK HERE!
Here’s the breakdown of recent activity by key category; included is how the latest results compare to the average monthly sales pace from 1988 through 2010:
Slice
Price
Price vs. year ago
Sales
Sales vs. year ago
Sales vs. ’88-’10 avg.
Houses
$470,000
-11.3%
1,784
+8.6%
-21.0%
Condos
$269,500
-10.2%
749
+4.5%
-13.0%
New
$583,000
+12.2%
150
-2.0%
-71.5%
All O.C.
$417,500
-6.2%
2,683
+6.8%
-26.4%
Take a careful look at the chart above. Note the price change on resale houses and condos are both down over 10%. Only new home sales -- numbers which can be easily gamed by incentive programs -- shows any strength at all in the market. And since the actual sales volumes of new homes is declining, the price gains are largely an illusion.
Also note the rate of sales versus the long-term average (1988-2010). Sales of all housing types is down well below their historic norms. It is particularly bad in sales of both new and resale detached houses. This is explained by the lack of a move up market due to the utter collapse of low end pricing. Nobody at the bottom of the housing ladder has any money to purchase a move-up home.
And more analysis ….
$417,500 median selling price is 35% below June 2007′s peak of $645,000.
Current price is 7.2% below 2010′s peak (May and July) of $450,000; 2% above end of 2010′s median ($410,000.)
The most recent median is 13% above the cyclical low hit in January 2009 at $370,000 — so the median has recouped 17% of the $275,000 price drop from the peak.
While it's true that the median does not show the double dip that both the hedonic and the $/SF measures show, the median is more susceptible to changes in the mix than either of those measures.
Basically, when the bottom dropped out of the market, the only thing that was selling was low-priced homes. With the complete seizure of the high end of the market, a radical change in mix caused the median to decline more rapidly than actual home values. Therefore, the increase in the median since then is more reflective of a change in sales mix than an actual increase in sales prices of individual homes.
Compared to cyclical low, single-family house median is 12% higher ($418,250 in January 2009); condo median is 7% higher ($252,000 in March 2009.) Builder prices for new homes are 38% above June 2009′s $424,000 bottom.
Does anyone believe builders are selling the same houses for 38% more than they were in 2009? Do you see how the change in mix effects the numbers?
The median selling price of a single-family home is 36% less than their peak pricing (June ’07). Condos sell 43% below their peak in March 2006. Builder prices for new homes are 33% below their February ’05 top.
Those are some sobering numbers. Most of that drop is due to a return to sane lending standards and the commensurate decline in loan balances.
Single-family homes were 74% more expensive than condos in this period vs. 77% a year ago. From 1988-2010, the average house/condo gap was 57%.
This disparity portends a continuing decline in high-end pricing. Prices at the high end are generally pushed up from below as move-up buyers take their accumulated equity and increase buying power to bid up prices in the next rung of the housing ladder. With the collapse of low end pricing, what is ordinarily a price push is turning into a price pull -- to the downside. Without a move up market, high end prices are floating in air with little real demand to support them.
The chart from Global Decision displays how during the price rally, condos rose more rapidly than SFRs, so prices were pushed up from below. Now with the decline at the low end, the price push has reversed and a price pull has taken its place.
As the lack of a move up market squelches demand, the substitution effect will also pull demand away from higher priced properties as each successive rung on the property ladder falls to more affordable levels.
Builder’s new homes sales were 6% of all residences sold in the period vs. 6% a year ago. From 1988-2010, builders did 14% of the Orange County homeselling.
Despite the fanfare regarding the Irvine Company's new home products, sales continue to be very weak. Given the price points they are wishing for, sales should continue to be very weak indefinitely.
Delusions at the high end
Wealthy home owners seem to live in their own world. For them, the price crash never happened, and no matter how much they paid, they believe a great fool is waiting in the wings to pay them substantially more when they want to sell. For some, this has proven to be true.
The owners of today's featured property paid $3,350,000 on what was a distressed sale back in April. Did they really buy this for 40% under its "real" value back in April? If they pull off a $1,251,300 profit on a Shady Canyon flip in less than six months, I will be very impressed.
Personally, I don't give them much chance. Where was their take-out buyer willing to pay so much more back in April? If so, was this a flop?
What do you think? Will they sell this for a profit in this market environment?
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This property is available for sale via the MLS. Please contact Shevy Akason, #01836707 949.769.1599 sales@idealhomebrokers.com
Irvine House Address ... 11 VERNAL Spg Irvine, CA 92603 Resale House Price ...... $4,895,000 Beds: 5 Baths: 7 Sq. Ft.: 7577 $646/SF Property Type: Residential, Single Family Style: Two Level, Spanish View: Mountain Year Built: 2004 Community: Turtle Rock County: Orange MLS#: U11003897 Source: SoCalMLS On Redfin: 14 days ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ With a private and expansive corner lot, this beautifully customized estate reflects Hacienda-style Spanish Revival architecture and is located within the exclusive residential golf preserve of Shady Canyon. The home was recently expanded and completely remodeled, opening up the living space and providing a soft contemporary flair to the custom home sized estate with 7,577 square feet. The well-designed additions created a full theater room, family room, and two additional bedrooms. The one of a kind home now features an incredible outdoor kitchen, dining area, and covered logia adjacent to a spectacular new yard complete with a pool, fire pit, custom lighting and water features, and pool bathroom. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Proprietary IHB commentary and analysis
Resale Home Price ...... $4,895,000 House Purchase Price … $3,350,000 House Purchase Date .... 4/21/2011
Net Gain (Loss) .......... $1,251,300 Percent Change .......... 37.4% Annual Appreciation … 78.3%
Cost of Home Ownership ------------------------------------------------- $4,895,000 .......... Asking Price $979,000 .......... 20% Down Conventional 4.10% ............... Mortgage Interest Rate $3,916,000 .......... 30-Year Mortgage $982,420 .......... Income Requirement
-$2145 .......... Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax) -$5542 .......... Equity Hidden in Payment (Amortization) $1414 .......... Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes) $632 .......... Maintenance and Replacement Reserves ============================================ $19,738 .......... Monthly Cost of Ownership
Cash Acquisition Demands ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $48,950 .......... Furnishing and Move In @1% $48,950 .......... Closing Costs @1% $39,160 ............ Interest Points @1% of Loan $979,000 .......... Down Payment ============================================ $1,116,060 .......... Total Cash Costs $302,500 ............ Emergency Cash Reserves ============================================ $1,418,560 .......... Total Savings Needed -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sneeoosh is a cabin designed by zeroplus architects for retreat place in Puget Sound, Washington. In the development process, eco friendly construction process was done in such ways to provide very minimal disturbances to the surrounded environment. Some limitations were adopted for this purpose, to create trully eco construction and good relationship with the environment.
There were three limitations used in the design and construction process of this sustainable cabin :
The first is the site that is full of mature Douglas fir and cedar trees (some up to three feet in diameter with a dense marine underbrush, including salal bushes) should be kept in minimal disturbances, if possible it should be undisturbed.
The materials used should support the first limitation, also should provide efficiency of the natural system. This can be achieved by controlling the lightness of the eco construction.
The cabin should be thermally comfortable.
All of these limitation were tried to be realized by the architect to achieve maximum sustainability, both for the cabin and for the surroundings also.
The eco friendly building was built by utilizing minimally invasive concrete disks as its foundation, providing house elevation, to make sure plants and other wildlife can continue growing. Not only the large tap roots of the trees were protected, but also the very small capillary-like roots that trace through the top humus layer. A fence was used to create a boundary of the construction area, minimizing the disturbances to the environment. The parking space are separated from the house, connected by a small path.
In order to create a beautiful connection between the interior and exterior, the use of glass took an important role. This is also supported by the existing of light monitors, built into the giant roof, reaching up through the branches, providing sun light access through the tall tree.
To create lightness effect for this sustainable building, beside the elevated foundation, the use of light weight materials were chosen. The structure should be efficiently stable and has good durability. By this, prefabricated steel system, that relies on tension for support, was chosen. SIP materials were also chosen for roof. SIP also provides good thermal performance because of the existing of insulation layers.
The sustainable building is divided into two different thermal areas. The first is the “opened” area, the living space which is glazed and has good connectiln to outdoor. The second is the insulated area located in the upper floor, the sleeping area which is highly insulated, quiet, dark, and turns inward. This separation were taken based on the experience of backpacking, where outdoor activities are done a long the day, and sleeping at night in a sleeping bag inside the tent. By this, the thermal comfort can be provided optimally for every activities of the inhabitants.
This eco friendly construction may provide a retreat place that is seen nestled to the landscape. The architecture concept may provide a new inspiration on having a good balance between the environment and the building.
