As 2010 comes to an end, I can’t help but look back and list down just some of the most significant and sometimes painful lessons I personally learned during the past year. I hope these lessons would help us all move forward in 2011. Here goes my…
Top 20 lessons learned for 2010
Real estate investing should be fun, if it ain’t, then there’s a problem somewhere. Find it, and correct it fast, before you lose interest or get burned out.
The Spirit of the Woods is like an old good friend. Makes me feel warm and good in-side. I knew his name and it was good to see him again. Cause in the wind he's still a-live. Oh Fred Bear Walk with me down the trails again. Take me back, back where I be-long. Fred Bear
Fresh Fall in Home Prices Is Headwind for Economy; Other Signs Still Strong
By S. MITRA KALITA And SUDEEP REDDY -- DECEMBER 29, 2010
A new bout of declining home prices is threatening to hamper the U.S. recovery, just as consumers and the overall economy have been showing signs of healing.
Home prices across 20 major metropolitan areas fell 1.3% in October from September, the third straight month-over-month drop, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index released Tuesday. Many economists expect the declines to continue into at least next spring, erasing most of the gains made since prices bottomed out in early 2009.
The housing market, which appeared poised for a recovery earlier in the year, now could be heading for a second downward drift.
"This looks like a double-dip [in housing] is pretty much on the way, if not already here," said David Blitzer, chairman of the Standard & Poor's index committee. "Somebody who thought last year that it's going to be straight up from here was wrong."
That's right. The bears were right, and the bulls were wrong.
Enough gloating. Back to the serious business of documenting the ongoing collapse of real estate prices.
Other news in recent weeks, however, has offered hope the economy is on the cusp of strong, sustainable growth. Retail sales returned to levels seen just before the recession started in 2007. Manufacturing continues to expand. U.S. exports are back to where they were just before the financial crisis.
Optimism among heads of small businesses and large corporations is also near pre-recession levels. And tax legislation that includes a one-year payroll-tax cut for most workers has boosted prospects.
Yet the twin forces of jobs and housing remain trouble spots. The labor market has added a million jobs in the past year, but that pace is far too slow to offset an unemployment rate that climbed to 9.8% last month.
Job worries are hampering consumer confidence despite strength in holiday sales and a rising stock market. The Conference Board, a business research group, said Tuesday that its confidence index fell to 52.5 from 54.3 in November, as consumers' views about job availability worsened.
The index, after rising through May as the economy showed early signs of improvement, now has retreated to its level of a year ago. The percentage of people planning to buy a home is also back to where it was a year ago, erasing improvement seen in early 2010.
U.S. Consumer-Confidence Index Slips
In the Case-Shiller data, all 20 cities in the index posted month-over-month declines in October.
As for year-over-year data, only four areas—Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco and Washington, D.C.—showed prices higher than in October 2009. Six markets hit their lowest since prices started falling four years ago, dropping below their spring 2009 levels, when most regions saw prices bottom out. The six were Atlanta, Miami, Seattle, Tampa, Charlotte, N.C., and Portland, Ore.
Prices in several markets, including Las Vegas and Cleveland, are nearly down to 2000 levels.
The low end in Las Vegas is trading at the early 90s levels. The good stuff still hangs on at 2004 prices. The good stuff will continue to decline, but investors and new owner-occupants will keep low-end prices stable.
The housing index was driven down by factors including the expiration of a federal tax credit for buyers who signed contracts by April 30, which caused demand to fall off.
Prices also were weighed down by a huge inventory of foreclosed homes, which tend to sell at sharply discounted prices.
In recent months, according to the National Association of Realtors, foreclosure and other distressed sales have represented more than 30% of home sales—and more than half in some states, such as Nevada.
Wells Fargo & Co. projects prices will drop 8% more by mid-2011, given high supply. "Demand is still dead in the water," said Wells economist Sam Bullard.
Prices also face other hurdles: slightly rising mortgage rates, and homeowners who owe more on their houses than they're worth, and thus may walk away as values dip further.
The owners under pressure include Tasha McLaughlin, a 33-year-old mother of two in Sacramento's South Natomas neighborhood. She and her husband, Steve, bought their two-bedroom house in 2004 for $256,000, intending to stay about five years. After 11 months of trying to sell it between 2006 and 2007, the family took it off the market.
"Everyone is saying we should foreclose or claim bankruptcy, but I have a moral issue with that," said Mrs. McLaughlin. "The more we try to pay the mortgage and pinch pennies, the more we get punished."
Now, with a similar home down the block listed for $80,000, the McLaughlins are accepting that they won't recoup their losses anytime soon. Their interest-only loan is set to increase their current $1,600 monthly payment to $2,200 in seven years. If they were to default on their mortgage and walk away, they calculate that in about the same time, seven years, their credit scores would be stable enough to allow them to buy again elsewhere.
"I am just going to swallow my pride and walk out. I have to," said Mrs. McLaughlin. "The market for homes is not going up."
Housing analysts agree that markets such as Sacramento, Las Vegas and parts of Arizona and Florida are at risk of more declines. "These places relied so heavily on mortgages and real estate for their economy that we're going to see a two-tiered recovery," said Chris Mayer, a professor of real estate at Columbia Business School. "Luxury spending is not going on across the country—it's happening among highly skilled consumers who live in the places that have seen some recovery."
Homes remain a key part of Americans' wealth. Households held $6.4 trillion of home equity at the end of the third quarter, alongside $12.2 trillion in stocks and mutual-fund shares, according to Federal Reserve data.
For every dollar decline in housing wealth, consumers reduce spending by about a nickel in the subsequent 18 months, Moody's Economy.com chief economist Mark Zandi estimates. He cautioned that other factors, such as the stock market's strength and tax credits, could offset this effect.
"People feel poorer when their houses are going down in value," said Jack Fitzgerald, chief executive of Fitzgerald Auto Malls, which has a dozen locations along the East Coast. He is seeing many customers who could buy new cars choosing used cars instead, "spending as little as they can." While sales are improving, he expects them to grow only slowly, given all the consumer uncertainty.
Still, the overall economy's dependence on housing diminished greatly since the financial crisis, said Ivy Zelman, chief executive of Zelman & Associates, a housing-research firm. "Consumers have shown us they can still spend even if home prices go down," she said. But falling home values "put a lid on the recovery and the magnitude of it."
I don't believe house prices will fall a large amount from here. They will go down, particularly at the high end, but with an improving economic picture, demand for housing will improve. Considering it has been hovering near historic lows for years, it is bound to pick up some in 2011. Much will depend on the course of interest rates and unemployment. If interest rates move higher and unemployment stays high, house prices may fall significantly, but if interest rates remain low, and if unemployment drops, we won't see a significant uptick in prices because hte overhead supply, but we could see a big increase in sales volumes. That would be great for clearing the market.
100% financing deal emerges from 2.5 years of shadow inventory
Today's featured property was purchased on 9/16/2005 for $509,000. The owners used a $356,300 first mortgage, a $152,700 stand-alone second, and a $0 down payment. The defaulted about three years ago.
Foreclosure Record Recording Date: 05/12/2010 Document Type: Notice of Sale
Foreclosure Record Recording Date: 02/09/2010 Document Type: Notice of Default
Foreclosure Record Recording Date: 11/02/2009 Document Type: Notice of Rescission
Foreclosure Record Recording Date: 06/04/2009 Document Type: Notice of Sale
Foreclosure Record Recording Date: 04/21/2008 Document Type: Notice of Default
Since this was a purchase money, non-recourse mortgage, the bank was in no hurry to foreclose and take the loss. There is no prospect of recovery on this loan. The finally got around to foreclosing on 7/19/2010 for $431,484, then they spent several months preparing it for sale -- which looks like they did nothing.
Are the shadow inventory deniers still making fools of themselves, or has everyone accepted that shadow inventory is real and not that hard to find?
Home Purchase Price … $509,000 Home Purchase Date .... 9/16/2005
Net Gain (Loss) .......... $(170,694) Percent Change .......... -33.5% Annual Appreciation … -6.3%
Cost of Ownership ------------------------------------------------- $359,900 .......... Asking Price $12,597 .......... 3.5% Down FHA Financing 5.07% ............... Mortgage Interest Rate $347,304 .......... 30-Year Mortgage $75,116 .......... Income Requirement
$1,879 .......... Monthly Mortgage Payment
$312 .......... Property Tax $100 .......... Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos) $60 .......... Homeowners Insurance $242 .......... Homeowners Association Fees ============================================ $2,593 .......... Monthly Cash Outlays
-$311 .......... Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax) -$412 .......... Equity Hidden in Payment $25 .......... Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes) $45 .......... Maintenance and Replacement Reserves ============================================ $1,940 .......... Monthly Cost of Ownership
Cash Acquisition Demands ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $3,599 .......... Furnishing and Move In @1% $3,599 .......... Closing Costs @1% $3,473 ............ Interest Points @1% of Loan $12,597 .......... Down Payment ============================================ $23,268 .......... Total Cash Costs $29,700 ............ Emergency Cash Reserves ============================================ $52,968 .......... Total Savings Needed Property Details for 2100 TIMBERWOOD Irvine, CA 92620 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Beds: 2 Baths: 1 bath Home size: 1,270 sq ft ($283 / sq ft) Lot Size: n/a Year Built: 2005 Days on Market: 73 Listing Updated: 40526 MLS Number: P755549 Property Type: Condominium, Residential Community: Northwood Tract: Cust --------------------------------------------------------- According to the listing agent, this listing is a bank owned (foreclosed) property.
Like new! Immaculate one bedroom + loft (used at a bedroom) townhouse built in 2005 located in the desirable Collage complex. Unit features include brand new paint and carpet throughout, fireplace, one car garage, patio with pool views, walk-in closet and storage room. Complex is equipped with beautifully manicured landscaping, pool, spa and secure gate access. Property will be sold with washer, dryer, stove/range and dishwasher.
I hope you have enjoyed this week, and thank you for reading the Irvine Housing Blog: astutely observing the Irvine home market and combating California Kool-Aid since 2006.
We’ve survived another year. Barely. Maybe even hanging on by a single fingernail. For many of us it wasn’t too bad. No matter what 2010 gave you, I’m wishing for you a happy and better 2011.
I was never one for resolutions….having learned that lesson early in life. So I’m only going to make one this year. I vow/promise/swear to write regularly on the blog. I miss the regularity as much as many of you do. Battling the market and my health, learning to live and function alone, left little time for fun things such as blogging. Next year just has to be better on all fronts.
The following essay was written by Dana Whitiker, the marketing coach at my office. It reminded me of many of the things that I’ve lost or forgotten over the last two years. Since it’s in the selfless form of wishes for someone else, I thought it appropriate to share with you.
My New Year Wishes For You
I wish for you to find clarity about who you really are deep in your core, what precisely you want your life to mean and what activities will come from that knowledge. I wish for you to grant us your passion in all your actions.
I wish for you to find fulfillment: fulfillment in a way that you feel your heart expand and your energy vibrating off of your skin. I wish for you to know inner peace. I wish for you to relinquish the need to control the people and things around you and for you to surrender any and all judgments, especially of yourself.
I wish for you to love learning and to love the love of learning. I wish for you to master the concepts and exercises that excite you. I wish for you to find the art in doing anything, especially the day to day mundane things. I wish for you to take the time to reflect on your progress. I wish for you to appreciate the education in your mistakes. I wish for you to fail quickly and jump back up again and keep going. I wish for you to trust your gut instincts.
I wish for you to love whole heartedly and unabashedly. I wish for you to swim in the ocean and climb tall peaks, to tilt your face to the rain and to the sun and close your eyes if just for a moment. Smell flowers. Pick up pennies. Travel to other countries and experience different cultures.
I wish for you to be uncomfortable so you learn how to do something a different way. Laugh. Cry. Hold hands. Hug everybody you like. Kiss everyone you love. Know above all else that you are not alone. Know you are loved. I wish for you to feel that love as a warm and strong embrace around your heart.
Do the right thing. Take the high road, always. Know a lot of people and have a few really great friends. Pay yourself first. Tip well. Splurge on the nice watch. Live simply. Eat your vegetables. Cheat on your diet once a week. Run as far as you can. Walk on the beach. Make things with your hands. Appreciate your family. Validate yourself. Laugh some more.
I wish for you vibrant sunrises and mesmerizing sunsets. I wish for you to feel the power of this amazing masterpiece. Know you are absolutely perfect. Have reverence for all. Be resilient.
Anyone who is underwater on their mortgage and struggling with payments is considering strategic default. Many of these people will succumb to mortgage distress whether or not they chose the timing of their default. They are debt zombies. Many others who are underwater and struggling could survive the real estate recession and divert significant family money toward excessive loan payments, but they see the advantages of a lower housing cost, so many of them are choosing to strategically default because it is in their best interest financially to do so.
Many of those who chose not to strategically default make this choice because they believe making the payment is a moral obligation -- an obligation above and beyond what is written in the contract. Banks are relying on those borrowers motivated by their perceived morality to keep making payments. Unfortunately, there is no longer a moral stigma was associated with strategic default (accelerated default is a more accurate term).
Banks need a moral stigma to be associated with loan repayment. If the transaction were viewed by borrowers as a simple business transaction -- which it is -- then issues of morality are not effective at cajoling debtors into repayment, particularly when default is in the best interest of the debtor. Banks have long relied on borrower morality to get repaid.
Due to the events of the Great Housing Bubble, borrowers no longer feel a moral obligation to repay their mortgage debts. Borrowers view the system as corrupt. Many borrowers believe greedy lenders inflated prices with oversized loans to pad their own profit margins. Those borrowers are correct in their views and beliefs, and based on that view, many borrowers no longer feel compelled by morality to repay their mortgage debt.
More see walking on mortgage as a viable plan
'Strategic default' losing stigma as homes go deeper underwater
By Jane Hodges msnbc.com contributor msnbc.com contributor updated 12/20/2010 12:11:34 PM ET
More Americans than ever are showing a willingness to walk away from their underwater homes, according to a recent survey. Chris Kelly is a perfect example of someone who never thought she would send the bank “jingle mail” — mailing the keys back. But she did.
Until last year Kelly, a 46-year-old administrative assistant, was living in a 3,000-square-foot home she owned with her ex-husband in the Seattle suburbs.
The duo had put the three-bedroom, three-and-a-half bath home on the market before finalizing their divorce in the spring of 2009 but had no luck luring move-up buyers to the $600,000 home even after price markdowns.
Kelly wound up living there solo, struggling to make the mortgage payments. But as she kept writing checks, and worrying, she became aware that she’d have to make a hard choice: Leave the house while she still had decent savings, or pay until she’d emptied out all her accounts and then enter foreclosure.
In the latter scenario, she’d have to look for a lease with no money left for a deposit. Either way, she’d lose the home, whose value had dropped underwater -- below what the couple owed on it.
I know people who have wiped out their personal and retirement savings because they were unable to get themselves to default while they still had the ability to pay. It's like the slot machine gambler that refuses to get up until every last dollar has been lost. The decision to default gets forced upon them when they can no longer raid savings or Ponzi borrow to make payments. Decision by indecision is very painful in cases where accelerated default would have proven beneficial.
“It was a pretty clear decision,” says Kelly, who now lives in Austin, Texas. “I knew I had to walk away. The longer I stayed there, the worse my credit would be and the harder time I’d have finding a rental.”
So a year ago she walked way, joining the growing number of Americans willing to turn their backs on homes they can neither sell nor afford to keep. The real estate industry calls this "strategic default," referring to people who choose to walk away even when they can technically afford to continue paying their mortgage.
Lenders would certainly prefer all borrowers to be dutiful on their way to the debtors gallows by draining every last drop of savings rather than considering options and making a "strategic" or considered decision.
Nearly half, 48 percent, of homeowners with a mortgage said they would consider walking away from their home if they owed more on it than it was worth, according to a Harris Interactive survey released this month. The survey was conducted in November for real estate listings site Trulia and foreclosure research firm RealtyTrac.
Just six months ago, a similar survey indicated that only 41 percent of consumers would consider walking if they were underwater on their mortgages.
Is a 7% movement in this statistic meaningful? I think it is. Who do you think this 7% who changed their minds are? Who else would be thinking about it? Those faced with the decision, of course. A certain amount of the stigma will fall away as people know "good people" including family, friends, and acquaintances that have elected to accelerate their defaults. The trend will be for this statistic to trend toward zero over the next several years.
“It’s a phenomenon we haven’t seen before in the housing market,” said Rick Sharga, senior vice president of RealtyTrac. “The mindset of why people purchase a home has changed over the past decade.”
In the early 2000s, as home prices rose sharply and steadily, many buyers saw their home as an investment. But in the wake of the housing bust, it's clear that a home has become far more of a “utility” — a form of shelter — than an investment.
Actually, only the public perception has changed. Houses have never been a good long investment. The rate of appreciation only matches inflation, the carrying costs are high, the transaction costs are high, and the market is prone to bouts of illiquidity. Given these circumstances, only during brief periods of upward volatility (sucker rallies) is it possible to reap major appreciation benefits from owning residential real estate. It has always been about utility of ownership, but people are only now detoxifying from the kool aid enough to see it.
Over the next year, hundreds of thousands of homeowners will face the question of whether to walk away as their mortgage payments spike.
Sharga said that $300 billion worth of adjustable rate mortgages are expected to reset upward over the next 12 to 15 months, adding on average $1,000 to monthly mortgage payments on homes that already are worth 30 percent to 50 percent less than their original sale price.
Remember, it isn't the reset of the interest rate that is a problem because rates are still low, the real problem is the recasting of these loans from interest-only to fully amortizing. The recasts add significantly to the payment as Sharga suggested above.
Roughly 23.2 percent of all single-family homeowners who have a mortgage are underwater on their property, according to third-quarter data from Zillow. (Zillow estimates that 40 percent of single-family homes are owned, with the rest mortgaged.)
Major banks, including Bank of America and Wells Fargo, are preparing to work with these owners through modification programs that may include principal reduction or temporary interest-only loan payments until markets improve and refinancing is possible, Sharga says.
But clearly, many homeowners may have motivation to walk. They’ll see their mortgage payments spike at a time when their home value is underwater the deepest.
American homeowners lost $1.7 trillion in home value during 2010, a far higher loss of equity than the $1 trillion lost during 2009, according to Zillow data released earlier this month. Zillow also reported on a blog that less than one-fourth of the 129 metro areas it tracks showed home value gains in 2010.
In addition, the impacts to credit from a foreclosure are typically less damaging than those from a bankruptcy, which hits more lines of credit and loans than just the home loan. According to Barry Paperno, consumer operations manager at myFico.com, the consumer site for Minneapolis-based credit scoring company Fair Isaac Corp., a personal bankruptcy can shave 130 to 240 points off a person’s credit score, while a foreclosure typically reduces a score by 85 to 160 points. (FICO scores range from 350 to 850, with higher scores better.)
“It’s serious, and it certainly complicate future purchases,” Paperno says. “Compared to a bankruptcy, though, the score impact can be surprisingly different.”
The latest Harris survey also revealed some interesting gender differences in attitudes about strategic default: Men were nearly 50 percent more likely than women to consider walking away from an underwater loan, with 57 percent indicating willingness, vs. 40 percent of women.
That one surprises me. It may be interesting to see that broken down by who manages the money in the family. It's probably a higher percentage among those who face the realities of the bills than those that do not.
Pete Flint, CEO of Trulia, said that this may indicate men take a more investment-minded approach to homeownership and evaluate when to walk as a financial decision, while women may view their property as a home and have a harder time with the concept of leaving it even under fiscal duress.
Kelly embodies both approaches. She says she was torn about the decision, but couldn’t let sentiment overtake what, ultimately, was a move toward self-preservation.
“I never thought that this was something that would happen,” she says. “I loved that house.”
Is this about survival, or is this about entitlement? Ultimately, each borrower evaluates financial alternatives, determines the emotional toll to be paid, and finally makes a decision and acts on it. Some may consider that survival, but it is really the survival of entitlement. It is wise to squat in a nice home and avoid sending those resources to a lender, and it is wise to find a comparable rental for less than the former house payment. That's why borrowers quit paying and squat until finally moving into a rental. It's a trend we will see more of in 2011.
They didn't risk much of their money
Prior to the housing bubble, if you owned a $2,000,000 home, it meant you probably had more than a $1,000,000 in equity because very few borrowers tried to manage a note over $1,000,000. During the housing bubble, loans over $1,000,000 became common. Too common.
Todays featured property was purchased for $1,987,500 on 9/30/2006, right at the peak. The owners used a $1,490,300 first mortgage, a $298,050 second mortgage, and a $199,150 down payment.
Two months later on 12/6/2006 they opened a $250,000 HELOC and had immdieate access to their downpayment money plus another $50,850 in free money.
On 3/6/2007 they refinanced with a $1,770,000 Option ARM with a 2% teaer rate and obtained a $150,000 HELOC.
They quit paying a few months ago.
Foreclosure Record Recording Date: 11/01/2010 Document Type: Notice of Default
Home Purchase Price … $1,987,500 Home Purchase Date .... 9/30/2006
Net Gain (Loss) .......... $(52,040) Percent Change .......... -2.6% Annual Appreciation … 0.8%
Cost of Ownership ------------------------------------------------- $2,059,000 .......... Asking Price $411,800 .......... 20% Down Conventional 5.07% ............... Mortgage Interest Rate $1,647,200 .......... 30-Year Mortgage $429,740 .......... Income Requirement
$8,913 .......... Monthly Mortgage Payment
$1784 .......... Property Tax $433 .......... Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos) $343 .......... Homeowners Insurance $420 .......... Homeowners Association Fees ============================================ $11,894 .......... Monthly Cash Outlays
-$1683 .......... Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax) -$1954 .......... Equity Hidden in Payment $817 .......... Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes) $257 .......... Maintenance and Replacement Reserves ============================================ $9,332 .......... Monthly Cost of Ownership
Cash Acquisition Demands ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $20,590 .......... Furnishing and Move In @1% $20,590 .......... Closing Costs @1% $16,472 ............ Interest Points @1% of Loan $411,800 .......... Down Payment ============================================ $469,452 .......... Total Cash Costs $143,000 ............ Emergency Cash Reserves ============================================ $612,452 .......... Total Savings Needed Property Details for 20 WOODS Trl Irvine, CA 92603 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Beds: 5 Baths: 4 full 1 part baths Home size: 3,800 sq ft ($542 / sq ft) Lot Size: 10,236 sq ft Year Built: 2006 Days on Market: 348 Listing Updated: 40519 MLS Number: S600723 Property Type: Single Family, Residential Community: Turtle Ridge Tract: Arez ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ According to the listing agent, this listing may be a pre-foreclosure or short sale.
This Luxury Built Pardee Home is situated at the end of the cul-de-sac Nestled alongside Nature. Step thru the Gated entryway to two sitting areas, Built-in BBQ features Granite top seating gather around the firepit or just enjoy the nearly 10,000 sq. ft. lot and upgraded hardscaping. 5 bedrooms & Bonus Room allow room for any family needs. Designer Mahogany cabinetry, Viking Professional Stainless Steel appliances, Blt-in desk, Baltic Brown Granite Counters Center island w/bar seating. Living/Family Room Fireplaces. Spacious Family Room with cozy breakfast nook. Laura Ashley Plantation Shutters throughout. Recessed Lighting, Wired for surrond sound or security. 3 car garage features Remoteless entry & Epoxy flooring. Master suite features elegant Master Bath with jacuzzi tub and dual shower fixtures. Upstairs laundry room. Upgraded carpeting and neutral decor makes it easy for this to be your new home, VERY CLEAN and hardly lived it.